Trump Pressures Nigeria and OPEC to Lower Oil Prices, but Experts Say It’s Not That Simple
By Musa Abdullahi
At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, U.S. President Donald Trump called on Nigeria and other OPEC members to reduce global oil prices. He also urged central banks worldwide to cut interest rates without delay.
Speaking to business leaders on January 30, Trump expressed frustration over high crude oil prices and criticized oil-producing nations for not taking action sooner.
“I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. You gotta bring it down. I’m surprised they didn’t do it before the election,” Trump stated.
He further linked high oil prices to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, suggesting that expensive oil was helping to finance Vladimir Putin’s military campaign. “You bring down the oil price, that will end that war,” he claimed.
However, financial experts at Standard Chartered Bank argue that Trump’s demands are unlikely to succeed for several reasons. According to the bank, OPEC has already adjusted its production schedules in a way that limits oil supply for 2025. By delaying the rollback of voluntary production cuts and flattening the monthly increase rate, a significant volume of oil has been effectively removed from next year’s plan.
Their analysis also suggests that even with output increases, global oil inventories won’t necessarily rise, meaning the market is tighter than it appears. Furthermore, the bank highlighted that the full impact of these supply adjustments hasn’t yet been reflected in oil prices.
Historically, there has been a connection between oil prices and global politics. Experts point to the 1985-86 oil price crash and its role in hastening the collapse of the Soviet Union. But Standard Chartered cautioned that reducing oil prices alone is unlikely to bring an immediate end to the Russia-Ukraine war. OPEC ministers, the bank argues, view this approach as inefficient and costly compared to diplomatic efforts and sanctions.
Despite Trump’s calls, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister and OPEC+ leaders met but indicated that their February 3 meeting wouldn’t result in changes to their output plans. OPEC+ is set to begin increasing oil production from April, with a full unwinding of production cuts extended until the end of 2026 to avoid oversupply in the market.
What This Means for Nigeria
So far, Nigeria and its OPEC allies have not officially responded to Trump’s appeal. Nigeria, like other OPEC members, already has a gradual plan to increase oil production starting in April. This plan had faced multiple delays in the past due to weak global demand.
OPEC+ is meeting today under its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee to assess the situation.
Nigeria’s oil production has been on a steady decline over the last four years. From producing over two million barrels per day in 2019, output has dropped to an average of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024. The country struggled to meet its OPEC production quota throughout 2022 and 2023, and even in 2024, it has fallen short of its reduced quota of 1.5 million bpd.
Though the Nigerian government claims it is ramping up production to 1.8 million bpd, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows actual output averaging just 1.484 million barrels per day in 2024. This means Nigeria is still below its OPEC target.
As the global oil market navigates these pressures, Nigeria faces the challenge of balancing production goals with market realities, while also dealing with internal issues affecting its oil output.