By Chinedu Okafor | December 12, 2025
Nigeria’s petrol import bill has plunged dramatically in 2025, falling by N6.07 trillion in the first nine months compared to the same period last year, according to fresh trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Between January and September 2025, the country spent N5.42 trillion on imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), far below the N11.50 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024. This represents a 52.82% decline, a shift analysts attribute to rising domestic refining capacity and reduced reliance on offshore supply.
Quarterly Breakdown
- Q1 2025: Imports dropped to N1.76tn from N3.81tn in Q1 2024 — a 53.8% fall.
- Q2 2025: Imports fell to N2.38tn from N4.36tn in Q2 2024 — a 45.6% decline.
- Q3 2025: Imports contracted sharply to N1.29tn from N3.32tn in Q3 2024 — a 61.2% drop.
Across all three quarters, Nigeria imported N6.07tn less petrol than in 2024, underscoring a major structural shift in the nation’s fuel supply chain.
Refining Gains and FX Relief
While the NBS has not pinpointed a single driver for the decline, the trend aligns with improvements in local refining output. Analysts note that the reduction in imports has eased pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, which had been strained by large-scale fuel purchases since the subsidy reform of 2023.
Dangote Refinery’s Impact
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a 650,000-barrel-per-day facility, has been central to this transformation. The refinery began producing diesel and aviation fuel in January 2025 and added petrol output in September. Its entry has reshaped the downstream market, introducing competition and lowering retail prices intermittently throughout the year.
Despite early challenges — including a temporary suspension of naira-based sales in March due to foreign exchange constraints — government intervention resolved the naira-for-crude bottleneck, allowing operations to continue and reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imports.
Dangote’s Ambitions
Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, has hinted at a “major shakeup” in Nigeria’s downstream sector, promising not just price adjustments but a complete overhaul. Following President Bola Tinubu’s visit to the $20bn refinery in Lagos, Dangote pledged to expand capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million, positioning the facility as the largest refinery in the world.
Already, the refinery has turned Nigeria into a net exporter of diesel and jet fuel, while supplying vast quantities of petrol that previously came from Europe. Dangote described his vision of African energy independence as a “herculean task,” but one that he insists is achievable with existing infrastructure and international partnerships.
Outlook
With imports shrinking and domestic refining expanding, Nigeria appears to be entering a new era of fuel self-sufficiency. Analysts believe the trend could permanently alter the country’s trade balance, reduce foreign exchange volatility, and end the era of long fuel queues.